Putin Faces Warning of Shaky Regime Foundations Amid Dropping Russian Morale

Putin’s hold on power seems strong in Russia, but recent events reveal vulnerabilities in his regime, as noted by Dr. Alan Mendoza of the Henry Jackson Society think tank.

The attempted coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, although brief, plunged Moscow into a state of alarm, hinting at vulnerabilities within Putin’s stronghold. 

The fleeting upheaval illuminated a potential struggle for Putin to maintain control should a more destabilizing challenge emerge, exacerbated by waning morale amid the prolonged conflict in Ukraine.

Addressing Putin’s potential loss of power, Dr. Mendoza debunked the notion of electoral defeat in Russia, emphasizing the systemic nature of power dynamics within the country. 

Despite Putin’s yet-to-be-announced candidacy for the 2024 elections, his victory is largely anticipated. Dr. Mendoza delved into alternative scenarios that could herald Putin’s downfall, primarily tied to foreign policy and national security.

Putin’s Vulnerability in Ukraine’s Ongoing Crisis

The ongoing quagmire in Ukraine emerges as a critical factor shaping Putin’s vulnerability. Should the war persist, sapping Russia’s resources and prompting increased public discontent, a faction within the Kremlin might reassess Putin’s leadership. 

Dr. Mendoza articulated the possibility of a shift within the Kremlin, deeming Putin more of a liability than an asset, especially if the conflict fails to yield the anticipated success envisioned initially.

Nonetheless, immediate ousting remains improbable, given Putin’s entrenched control over the Kremlin. Yet, the protracted conflict in Ukraine continues to erode Russian morale despite state-sponsored propaganda efforts. 

Independent polling by the Chronicle indicates a stark decline in unwavering support for the invasion, plummeting from 22% to 12% between February and October 2023, signifying a populace increasingly disenchanted with the relentless war.

This collective disenchantment amidst an unrelenting conflict hints at potential fissures in the foundation of Putin’s authority, suggesting that while his grip on power remains firm, the shifting sands of public sentiment and geopolitical challenges may eventually wear away at his enduring dominance.