China’s Invasion Prospects Dim: US Experts Cast Doubt on Military Power in Taiwan Survey

By Ysa Panganiban Last updated Jan 24, 2024 Share with new partner:

A recent survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) questions China’s capability to invade Taiwan with its current military strength.

Released on Monday, the survey gathered opinions from 52 US experts, including individuals with extensive government experience, academics, and think-tank experts.

Only 27% of them believed that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had the capability to pull off an amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

A key factor influencing this skepticism is the belief that the US military would intervene in the event of an attack on Taiwan. An overwhelming 96% of US experts expressed confidence that the US military would defend Taiwan if China attempted an invasion in the next five years.

The survey also included 35 experts from Taiwan, with only 17% believing that China had the military power to execute a successful amphibious invasion.

The possibility of China pressuring Taiwan through a quarantine or blockade gained more consensus.

US-Taiwan Divergence on China’s Involvement

china's-invasion-prospects-dim-us-experts-cast-doubt-on-military-power-in-taiwan-survey — A recent survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) questions China’s capability to invade Taiwan with its current military strength.

Ninety-one percent of US experts agreed that China could impose a quarantine on Taiwan,

restricting the flow of goods through non-military means. However, only 63% of Taiwanese experts shared this view.

Similarly, 81% of US experts believed that China could impose a military blockade, with 60% of Taiwanese experts concurring. Both a quarantine and blockade could potentially escalate into an invasion. The survey revealed a divergence in confidence regarding US intervention.

While most US experts were confident that the US would step in during a quarantine (63%) or a basic blockade (79%), experts in Taiwan expressed lower confidence, with 40% and 60%, respectively.

Looking ahead, the majority of experts, both from Taiwan (58%) and the US (68%), expressed pessimism about cross-strait relations in 2024. Concerns have heightened with the recent election of William Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s new leader, known for his firm stance against Beijing, further fueling worries of increased Chinese aggression toward Taipei.