Trump Sent Stimulus Checks Twice—Could Another Big Payout Be Coming? Experts Weigh In

Social media is buzzing with speculation about the possibility of another round of stimulus checks if Donald Trump returns to the presidency in 2025. However, experts say such an outcome is highly unlikely, given the current state of the economy and the legislative hurdles involved.

The Legacy of Pandemic Stimulus Checks

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government issued three rounds of stimulus checks to help Americans weather the economic storm. Trump’s administration signed off on two of these payments in 2020, while President Biden authorized a third in 2021. These payments were critical during a time when the jobless rate skyrocketed to nearly 15% and millions of households faced financial hardship.

Currently, some Americans express dissatisfaction with the economy, citing lingering inflation as a concern. However, the economic conditions that justified stimulus checks in 2020 are not present today. Economists note that GDP growth remains solid, inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, and unemployment stands at a historically low 4.1%.

“Stimulus checks are typically reserved for periods of severe economic distress when consumer spending needs a boost,” explains LendingTree senior economist Jacob Channel. “That’s not the case right now.”

Could Trump Send Stimulus Checks?

Despite claims on social media, the authority to issue stimulus checks doesn’t rest solely with the president. Any such payments must be authorized by Congress through legislation. During Trump’s previous term, the stimulus checks resulted from bipartisan efforts in Congress, not unilateral presidential action. “A president can’t independently distribute stimulus checks,” Channel points out. “The payments issued during Trump’s administration were largely driven by Congressional legislation, particularly from Democrats in the House and Senate.” At this point, there’s no indication that Congress is considering new stimulus legislation. Instead, if Trump returns to office, his focus and that of Republican lawmakers are expected to shift toward extending the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act and addressing other fiscal policies.

The Impact on Inflation

One reason new stimulus checks are unlikely is the ongoing battle against inflation. While inflation has eased from its pandemic-era highs, it remains a critical concern for policymakers. Economists warn that further stimulus payments could fuel inflation by increasing consumer spending. “The last thing a responsible government would do is stimulate demand with additional checks, risking a resurgence of inflation,” Channel explains. Trump’s broader economic policies, such as tariffs and immigration reforms, could have inflationary effects, potentially pushing inflation up by 1 percentage point. Such an increase could stall further Federal Reserve rate cuts, adding complexity to the economic landscape.

No Stimulus Checks on the Horizon

The IRS, which distributed the pandemic stimulus payments, can only issue checks authorized by Congress. With no new legislation in the works, it’s highly unlikely that Americans will see stimulus checks in 2024 or 2025. For now, experts agree that while the economy may face challenges, it is far from the conditions that necessitated stimulus payments during the pandemic. Tax reforms and other fiscal measures are more likely to define the economic priorities of any future Trump administration.