When Donald Trump assumes office in January, his administration intends to launch what he has described as the “largest deportation operation in American history,” aiming to remove individuals he claims are a negative influence on the country. This large-scale campaign, which his supporters have long demanded, would involve unprecedented tactics, including dramatic, media-covered raids meant to instill fear.
Local law enforcement would need to cooperate, and temporary facilities like tents would be set up to detain people before deportation. The plan could see hundreds of thousands of individuals deported in a short time. Trump aims to justify these actions using lesser-known laws, potentially targeting locations previously considered safe for immigrants, such as churches and schools.
A memo from the American Civil Liberties Union earlier this year outlined the daunting logistics of such a mass deportation effort. It would involve arresting millions, initiating legal proceedings in immigration courts, handling appeals, and ultimately carrying out the removals — a monumental task with legal and constitutional challenges at every stage.
Estimates suggest there are over 11 million undocumented immigrants currently in the United States. JD Vance, the vice-president-elect, has proposed that 1 million people could be deported annually. For comparison, Trump deported approximately 1.5 million people during his first term.
Jason Houser, a former chief of staff for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) under Biden, provided a blunt assessment of the impending deportation efforts in an interview with the radio show This American Life. He predicted a chaotic start to the operation, stating, “The first 90 days is going to be hell.” He warned that communities would see buses transporting deported individuals, children being pulled from schools, and widespread disruption as people awaited detention. Businesses could struggle to function without their workers, and raids on companies would increase.
This is a glimpse of what large-scale, swift deportations could look like once Trump returns to office.
Trump and his “border czar,” Tom Homan, have stated that their first priority will be to deport individuals facing criminal charges. However, their plans extend beyond that, with no clear indication of who might be exempt from deportation, including the millions who have lived in the US for years and have strong community ties.
Trump has the authority to quickly reverse many programs initiated by the Biden administration through executive orders, and it’s likely he will do so. He can also direct federal agencies to shift their focus, such as revising who qualifies for emergency parole to remain in the country.
Certain groups currently benefiting from parole programs, such as Afghans with temporary protected status and migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, are easily tracked by the government. These individuals were fingerprinted and granted work authorization, making them more visible for potential deportation.
The future of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which protects young immigrants known as Dreamers, remains uncertain. While they may not be immediately targeted, ongoing legal battles could ultimately lead to the program’s end, which would align with Trump’s immigration goals without the need for new policies, according to Michelle Lapointe, legal director for the American Immigration Council.
Immigration advocates expect Trump to focus on what they call “low-hanging fruit” — individuals who have already been ordered deported after exhausting their legal avenues. This was a tactic Trump used during his first term, and Lapointe noted there is nothing preventing the new administration from immediately targeting these individuals. Additionally, the incoming administration may push to expand “expedited removals,” a process that allows for quicker deportations of undocumented immigrants who meet certain criteria, such as being in the U.S. for less than two years, bypassing some of the usual legal procedures.
Trump is likely to focus on cities that oppose immigration enforcement in order to demonstrate his ability to deport individuals from any area, potentially resulting in conflicts between Democratic-run jurisdictions and federal authorities.
Naureen Shah, deputy director of government affairs for the American Civil Liberties Union, warned that the initial raids under Trump’s administration will appear heavily militarized, even though the military won’t be directly involved. She believes the raids will be strategically staged to instill fear and confusion within immigrant communities, as the government may struggle to carry out deportations on the massive scale it envisions.
Trump’s deportation efforts will also focus on red states that are willing to collaborate with the federal government, providing the necessary resources and support. In Arizona, voters approved a measure allowing local law enforcement to enforce immigration laws, and other states have committed to participating in deportation initiatives.
Carlos Ramirez-Rosa, a Chicago alderman who previously worked on casework in Representative Luis Gutiérrez’s office, recalled receiving calls from people outside the office’s district seeking help with deportation issues.
Trump has threatened to use the military for deportations, a move that Michelle Lapointe, from the American Immigration Council, described as “ugly and extremely controversial.” His team has also suggested using law enforcement from states more supportive of his policies to arrest individuals in states that oppose deportations, according to an ACLU memo. Given that there aren’t enough ICE agents to carry out his plans at the desired scale, Trump intends to expand the 287(g) program, which allows local law enforcement to work with federal immigration authorities. The ACLU also anticipates that some local police may act as “badge-wearing vigilantes,” using minor infractions as a means to push immigrants into the deportation system.
Workplace raids, which were a hallmark of Trump’s first term, are expected to be part of the strategy again. One such raid took place in East Tennessee during his first term, where workers, including one woman who were rounded up, based on buses, and taken to detention center.
“We definitely expect these raids,” Lapointe stated. “Although I’m not sure how many they can actually carry out, their primary purpose is to instill fear within communities. It’s part of their strategy to terrorize as many people as possible, potentially forcing individuals to give up their rights or leave voluntarily.”
ICE agents have generally avoided “sensitive locations” like churches, schools, and hospitals, but these places may no longer be off-limits. Lapointe warned, “They are so aggressive, I wouldn’t rule anything out.”
Trump may also focus on deporting heads of households, which would cut off the financial support for families, forcing them to make difficult choices about whether to remain in the country, according to Shah.
Houser, a former ICE official, explained on This American Life that detention facilities might relax their standards to accommodate more people, such as by overcrowding jail cells beyond current limits. He suggested that unused warehouses or former department stores could be repurposed into detention centers. Additionally, the federal government may seek to use space in state or local jails to house detainees, according to Lapointe.
Temporary tent cities will also be set up to house individuals, with Texas offering state land for deportation facilities. Stephen Miller, Trump’s immigration advisor, revealed in 2023 that single adults would primarily be housed in these tent camps, as legal settlements prevent the indefinite detention of children.
Houser cautioned that these “soft-sided facilities” could lead to unrest and unsafe conditions, both for detainees and ICE agents.
To carry out deportations, planes will be used to return individuals to their home countries. However, some countries are reluctant to accept deportation flights, which could slow the process. Houser suggested that Trump might send deportees to countries willing to take them, even if they are not their original destination. For example, he proposed sending Cuban nationals to a third-party country like the Bahamas if those countries were open to accepting them.
Cities and states that oppose Trump’s deportation plans can refuse to cooperate with ICE or assist immigration agents in their efforts. They may also challenge attempts to federalize their state National Guard units, depending on the legal basis the Trump administration uses to activate them. Trump has stated his intention to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy the military domestically.
Liberal and immigrant advocacy organizations are expected to turn to the courts to resist Trump’s actions. Trump has said he plans to use the Alien Enemies Act, a law from 1798 that permits the deportation of undocumented individuals from “enemy” nations during wartime—a legal approach likely to provoke lawsuits. The Brennan Center for Justice has pointed out that the law is infamously associated with the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II, a dark chapter in U.S. history for which the government has since issued apologies.
“We’ll go to the courts,” said Lapointe. “We will highlight instances of illegal actions and violations of due process, hoping the legal system can provide safeguards.”
Mass deportations will have significant economic consequences, including the high costs of detention and deportation, as well as the ripple effects on industries like farming and construction that rely on immigrant labor. The American Immigration Council also warns of potential losses in tax revenues.
The public’s reaction will play a crucial role, with widespread opposition possible if the Trump administration’s actions become too extreme or affect people in unexpected ways.
“I believe they’ll overreach, and there will be a backlash,” said Shah. “Communities won’t tolerate being terrorized, the human cost will become evident, and it will also harm our economy.”
or a specific category with our 
Comments are closed, but trackbacks and pingbacks are open.